About the only thing completely settled with the election results is that the majority of voters didn’t think well enough of either the Liberals or NDP to give them a clear majority.
Following Green Party leader Andrew Weaver’s Monday announcement, we are left with a minority government..
With Christy Clark’s Liberals winning 43 seats, John Horgan’s NDP winning 41 seats and Andrew Weaver’s Green Party winning three seats, the possibilities had been intriguing, but not so much anymore.
If Clark’s Liberals attempt to continue as government, it will become a little dodgy.
On the other hand, if Clark gives up the reins of government and Horgan becomes our premier, it could become even more dodgy, depending on what concessions he granted Weaver to secure Green Party support in the legislature.
With only 43 seats, if Clark remains as premier, she must choose a speaker, which will reduce her plurality to one, leading to almost certain defeat in the legislature.
It isn’t actually necessary to choose a speaker from government ranks, but if the NDP forms the government, Horgan or Weaver will have to concede to having one of their members appointed to this post.
With Clark having refused to step aside as premier, her government’s first challenge after appointing the speaker will come with the vote following the speech from the throne. If the Liberals fail to win the vote on the speech, it means the government is defeated and, following protocol, must resign.
That would leave the door open to Horgan to ask the Lt. Governor for permission to try to form a government.
Horgan’s deal with Weaver gives the NDP the slimmest of majorities with the coalition having 44 votes to the Liberal’s 43.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand how critical it is for the NDP to remain firmly adhered to the left flank of the Three Amigos, as Weaver’s three-member Green Party caucus will surely be known, in any attempt to hold a winning edge in the legislature.
There is also the nasty position of party whip for the Liberals and NDP which will come into play.
Among other duties, it is up to the party whip for each party to get the MLAs into their seats in the legislature when any important vote is coming up.
The party whips will confer with each other to allow an equal number of MLAs from each party to be absent from the house for certain reasons, but, other than those occasions, in the coming session of the legislature, the party whips will have to exercise stern discipline to ensure an absentee MLA doesn’t result in an upset.
During such critical times, MLAs could be called upon to show up for crucial votes regardless of illnesses.
It could become like a scene out of Weekend at Bernie’s, where the corpse of a deceased was propped up to make it appear that he was still alive at various times.
There are other intangible factors all party leaders must consider, such as, with civic elections scheduled for November 2018 and a federal election in 2019, do any of the leaders want to be portrayed as having forced an early vote without good reason?
The election results showed clearly that British Columbians weren’t overjoyed with the performance of Clark’s Liberals; nor did the majority of voters think Horgan would be an improvement.
Despite failing to win a majority, the NDP rank and file membership shows no outward signs of displeasure with Horgan’s leadership, but I’m not so sure Clark can count on the same level of support from Liberal party members.
At this stage, nobody is admitting it publicly, but many Liberal party members and supporters won’t be shedding too many tears if Clark steps down and a new leader is chosen prior to any possible early election.
Sandy Macdougall is a retired journalist and former city councillor.