Jock Finlayson is executive vice president and chief policy officer of the Business Council of BC. (Submitted)

COLUMN: And now the bad news about B.C.’s economy

Jock Finlayson is executive vice president and chief policy officer of the Business Council of BC

In a Black Press Media column posted last month, I touched on a number of factors that continue to support economic growth in B.C., of which the most important is a steadily expanding population.

Now, I turn to developments that are dampening growth and casting something of a cloud over the province’s economic prospects in the next six to 12 months.

The first negative trend is sluggish consumer spending. Retail sales in B.C. were in negative territory through the first seven months of 2019. Adjusted for inflation and population growth, retail sales are even weaker.

Consumer spending is being weighed down by softer housing markets and the steep drop in auto sales. Record high levels of household debt are also causing some consumers to cut back on spending.

READ MORE: Canadians’ debt levels hit record highs at end of last year, CMHC says

Turning to housing and real estate indicators, residential home sales have fallen markedly in the last year or so. Recently, however, lower interest rates and earlier price declines have improved affordability, with home sales moving higher.

Some market watchers believe the housing down-cycle is over. But the Ministry of Finance estimates that residential sales in 2019 will hover near 46,000, down from almost 74,000 two years ago.

At the same time, housing starts, which have been fairly strong so far this year, are poised to slump, in line with reduced demand from non-resident buyers and decisions by many B.C. developers to pull back from planned projects.

The provincial government predicts that housing starts will drop by more than one-fifth in 2020.

Dwindling residential investment will detract from aggregate economic growth. It will also work against the policy objective of enhanced affordability, which – among other things – requires an increased supply of new housing units.

KEEP READING: Slow home sales cool B.C. government revenues this year

The deteriorating global economy is another major worry. Slower growth in major external markets, including the U.S., China and Germany, is already beginning to pinch B.C.’s exports.

Through July, the value of provincial exports was down by three per cent from 2018 levels. The forest industry has suffered the biggest blow, with wood product exports sagging by around 20 per cent. There is little chance of a meaningful export recovery in 2020.

The rolling economic crisis in the forest sector is another significant negative in B.C.’s economic picture. Mills are closing and jobs are being lost across the province. Forestry provides one-third of B.C.’s merchandise exports.

The number one issue in forestry is the diminished supply of timber, which is pushing up fibre costs for B.C. sawmills even as North American lumber prices remain low. Higher log costs have led to increased stumpage levies, at a time when the industry cannot absorb rising government-imposed charges.

Logging and lumber companies are also struggling with complex First Nations issues and growing environmental and regulatory costs.

The footprint of the forest sector is set to contract as the industry consolidates in the face of a reduced timber supply. Unfortunately, provincial policies and the lack of attention being given to the long-term commercial heath of B.C.’s leading export industry is making the transition harder and more painful than necessary.

ALSO READ: Truck convoy stalls downtown Vancouver traffic to protest forestry job losses

Finally, B.C.’s (and Canada’s) waning overall competitiveness is another economic headwind, one that is especially evident in the natural resource and infrastructure industries and in key segments of manufacturing.

Many companies in these sectors are postponing capital investments and/or investing elsewhere. Rising taxes on business are part of the explanation, along with complex and increasingly costly government regulatory regimes that are making Canada and B.C. less attractive places to deploy capital.

READ PART 1: A mix of good and bad news about B.C.’s economy

Add it all up, and the Business Council has decided to mark down our B.C. economic outlook for 2019-20.

We now expect growth of less than two per cent this year, rising slightly in 2020 as work accelerates on LNG Canada’s huge natural gas liquefaction plant and related marine terminal in Kitimat.

Job creation should continue, but at a noticeably slower pace than in the recent past. Government policy-makers and business decision-makers should get ready for a bumpy economic ride.

Jock Finlayson is executive vice president and chief policy officer of the Business Council of British Columbia

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Just Posted

OP-ED: Improving access to justice means modernizing legal practice

Use of technology in law firms could help British Columbians afford essential legal services.

UPDATED: Man reportedly stabbed with ‘pen’ in downtown Maple Ridge

Woman arrested, man refused to go to hospital: Ridge Meadows RCMP

Maple Ridge vet trying not to euthanize spotted salamanders

Without permits, he can only send them to zoos.

No negligence in RCMP actions in B.C. teen’s overdose death: Watchdog

A Maple Ridge woman started an online petition called Justice for Carson Crimeni.

LETTER: Pitt Meadows should have lowest taxes

New council seems set on its own vision of a restyled Pitt Meadows.

VIDEO: Kenney lays out key demands for meeting with Trudeau

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney aims for clear signs of federal action on two-day Ottawa trip

Province sues over sailing incident that killed teen with disabilities

Gabriel Pollard, 16, died from injuries after marine lift failed

Hope’s illicit drug death rate rivals Vancouver

Small Fraser Valley district listed among top five per capita in B.C.

First Nations want Big Bar landslide cleared ASAP to allow fish passage

Leadership calling for urgent action and resources to remove obstruction on the Fraser

Assessed value of Lower Mainland homes expected to decrease in 2020

Other areas of province may see modest increases over last year’s values

15-year-old charged following threat to South Surrey high school

Police announce pair of teens arrested for Nov. 14 incident at Elgin Park Secondary

TransLink CEO ‘hopeful’ SkyTrain shutdown can be averted with last-minute deal

No extra buses will be on the roads if strike goes ahead

Chilliwack family’s therapy dog injured in hit and run

Miniature pit bull Fifty’s owner is a single mother facing close to $10,000 in vet bills

Cougar destroyed in Penticton area after mauling dog, killing cat

This is the first reported incident with a cougar this year in the Penticton area

Most Read